ATP tennis predict — Patrick Maloney vs Hiroki Moriya

Challenger Hard Bloomfield Hills challenger · qualification - 1. round

Predicted probability

Patrick Maloney

USA

54.90%

Hiroki Moriya

Japan

45.10%

Average Odds

1.58 / 2.24

Market probability

58.64% / 41.36%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1600.9 Elo 1512.6

1492.0 Elo (surface) 1510.3

34 Wins (Challenger) 305

23 Wins (surface) 273

7 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.961 Dominance ratio 1.259

- Rank 507

26.4 Age 35.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Patrick Maloney

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

10 matches with market odds since 2026-07-05.

Hiroki Moriya

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–5L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Patrick Maloney Hiroki Moriya

1st Serve In %

62.8%

64.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.5%

64.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.6%

51.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.3%

30.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.0%

46.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.95

0.11

Double Faults per Service Game

0.47

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

65.2%

62.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.3%

71.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.0%

49.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.4%

32.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.6%

55.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.66

0.42

Double Faults per Service Game

0.40

0.35

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Patrick Maloney Hiroki Moriya

Break Points Saved %

41.7%

66.3%

Break Points Converted %

13.6%

37.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.4%

58.7%

Break Points Converted %

37.5%

38.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Patrick Maloney 0 – 0 Hiroki Moriya

Hard Bloomfield Hills challenger · 2026-07-19

qualification - 1. round

Patrick Maloney #-

Hiroki Moriya #512

6-3 7-6

2 Aces 2

5 Double Faults 7

89 Service Points 64

59 First Serve In 51

43 First Serve Won 39

14 Second Serve Won 3

3 Break Points Saved 1

4 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.6 Average Odds 2.2

Patrick Maloney vs Hiroki Moriya — Prediction