ATP tennis predict — Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Petr Nesterov

Challenger Hard Villena challenger · R16 11:00

Predicted probability

Pablo Llamas Ruiz

Spain

68.49%

Petr Nesterov

Bulgaria

31.51%

Average Odds

1.35 / 2.91

Market probability

68.31% / 31.69%

Why This Prediction?

Pablo Llamas Ruiz is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1807 vs 1664), a stronger serve (68.2% vs 53.5% of service points won) and a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1690 vs 1688).

Player Comparison

1806.8 Elo 1664.1

1690.3 Elo (surface) 1688.4

91 Wins (Challenger) 42

22 Wins (surface) 14

10 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.101 Dominance ratio 0.737

144 Rank 298

24.0 Age 23.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Pablo Llamas Ruiz

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–3L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Petr Nesterov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–1L · 87.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Pablo Llamas Ruiz Petr Nesterov

1st Serve In %

65.9%

59.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.9%

66.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

55.5%

37.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.7%

32.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.3%

56.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.56

0.34

Double Faults per Service Game

0.11

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

65.0%

61.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.0%

63.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.8%

45.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

34.1%

40.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.7%

50.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.19

0.29

Double Faults per Service Game

0.10

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Pablo Llamas Ruiz Petr Nesterov

Break Points Saved %

63.0%

64.3%

Break Points Converted %

40.5%

26.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.2%

53.2%

Break Points Converted %

37.0%

44.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Pablo Llamas Ruiz and Petr Nesterov have never played each other.

Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Petr Nesterov — Prediction