ATP tennis predict — Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Luca Nardi

Challenger Hard Villena challenger · 1. round 11:00

Predicted probability

Pablo Llamas Ruiz

Spain

58.69%

Luca Nardi

Italy

41.31%

Average Odds

1.44 / 2.62

Market probability

64.53% / 35.47%

Why This Prediction?

Pablo Llamas Ruiz is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1795 vs 1715), the advantage of playing in his home country and a stronger serve (68.2% vs 64.6% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1795.5 Elo 1715.1

1663.6 Elo (surface) 1718.5

90 Wins (Challenger) 115

21 Wins (surface) 84

9 Last 15 form 9

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.101 Dominance ratio 1.067

144 Rank 247

24.0 Age 23.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Pablo Llamas Ruiz

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–3L · 62.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Luca Nardi

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

10 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Pablo Llamas Ruiz Luca Nardi

1st Serve In %

65.9%

60.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.9%

67.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

55.5%

53.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.7%

28.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.3%

52.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.56

0.34

Double Faults per Service Game

0.11

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.0%

66.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.1%

46.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.9%

36.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.0%

50.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.17

0.27

Double Faults per Service Game

0.08

0.35

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Pablo Llamas Ruiz Luca Nardi

Break Points Saved %

63.0%

64.4%

Break Points Converted %

40.5%

38.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.2%

63.3%

Break Points Converted %

38.6%

40.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Pablo Llamas Ruiz 1 – 0 Luca Nardi

Clay Vicenza CH · 2023-05-29

QF

Pablo Llamas Ruiz #223

Luca Nardi #151

6-3 6-4

1 Aces 0

1 Double Faults 1

55 Service Points 61

39 First Serve In 41

30 First Serve Won 27

12 Second Serve Won 10

1 Break Points Saved 3

1 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Luca Nardi — Prediction