ATP tennis predict — Pablo Carreno Busta vs Vilius Gaubas

ATP Clay Estoril · 1. round

Predicted probability

Pablo Carreno Busta

Spain

63.52%

Vilius Gaubas

Lithuania

36.48%

Average Odds

1.38 / 3.01

Market probability

68.56% / 31.44%

Why This Prediction?

Pablo Carreno Busta is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1767 vs 1578), a higher Elo rating (1768 vs 1628) and a stronger return game (42.5% vs 38.2% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1768.1 Elo 1628.2

1766.8 Elo (surface) 1578.3

333 Wins 29

142 Wins (surface) 17

9 Last 15 form 8

1 Head-to-head wins 0

0.942 Dominance ratio 0.982

65 Rank 128

35.0 Age 21.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Pablo Carreno Busta

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Vilius Gaubas

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–4L · 55.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–6L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Pablo Carreno Busta Vilius Gaubas

1st Serve In %

62.5%

61.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.4%

71.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.7%

51.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.6%

29.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.8%

49.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.30

0.35

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

0.13

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

68.3%

63.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.5%

68.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.2%

48.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

38.0%

33.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.1%

46.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.17

0.24

Double Faults per Service Game

0.12

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Pablo Carreno Busta Vilius Gaubas

Break Points Saved %

51.8%

71.9%

Break Points Converted %

38.0%

34.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

52.4%

57.8%

Break Points Converted %

45.1%

45.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Pablo Carreno Busta 1 – 0 Vilius Gaubas

Clay Estoril · 2026-07-21

1. round

Pablo Carreno Busta #65

Vilius Gaubas #128

6-1 6-3

1 Aces 2

1 Double Faults 0

51 Service Points 49

27 First Serve In 31

15 First Serve Won 21

9 Second Serve Won 12

2 Break Points Saved 4

7 Break Points Faced 5

14 Winners 26

20 Unforced Errors 14

1.4 Average Odds 3.0

Hard Tenerife 1 CH · 2025-02-03

QF

Pablo Carreno Busta #149

Vilius Gaubas #195

4-6 6-3 7-6(3)

8 Aces 3

2 Double Faults 2

96 Service Points 97

73 First Serve In 65

49 First Serve Won 43

10 Second Serve Won 14

2 Break Points Saved 8

6 Break Points Faced 12

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Pablo Carreno Busta vs Vilius Gaubas — Prediction