ATP tennis predict — Pablo Carreno Busta vs Valentin Royer

ATP Hard Montreal · 1. round

Predicted probability

Pablo Carreno Busta

Spain

61.17%

Valentin Royer

France

38.83%

Average Odds

1.46 / 2.68

Market probability

64.73% / 35.27%

Why This Prediction?

Pablo Carreno Busta is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1733 vs 1578), a higher Elo rating (1763 vs 1701) and more wins on hard courts (184 vs 24).

Player Comparison

1763.4 Elo 1701.1

1732.9 Elo (surface) 1578.3

334 Wins 33

184 Wins (surface) 24

9 Last 15 form 3

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.922 Dominance ratio 0.865

68 Rank 78

35.1 Age 25.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Pablo Carreno Busta

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Valentin Royer

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Pablo Carreno Busta Valentin Royer

1st Serve In %

62.5%

61.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.4%

74.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.7%

45.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.6%

30.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.8%

48.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.30

0.55

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

68.3%

64.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.5%

69.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.2%

56.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

38.0%

39.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.1%

60.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.17

0.45

Double Faults per Service Game

0.12

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Pablo Carreno Busta Valentin Royer

Break Points Saved %

51.8%

59.2%

Break Points Converted %

38.0%

46.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

52.4%

64.7%

Break Points Converted %

45.1%

45.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Pablo Carreno Busta 0 – 0 Valentin Royer

Hard Montreal · 2026-08-04

1. round

Valentin Royer #78

Pablo Carreno Busta #68

1-6 7-5 6-2

4 Aces 4

4 Double Faults 7

97 Service Points 93

58 First Serve In 51

44 First Serve Won 36

13 Second Serve Won 21

4 Break Points Saved 5

7 Break Points Faced 8

29 Winners 34

42 Unforced Errors 47

2.7 Average Odds 1.5

Pablo Carreno Busta vs Valentin Royer — Prediction