ATP tennis predict — Pablo Carreno Busta vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli

ATP Clay Umag · R16

Predicted probability

Pablo Carreno Busta

Spain

33.34%

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Argentina

66.66%

Average Odds

1.58 / 2.34

Market probability

59.69% / 40.31%

Why This Prediction?

Camilo Ugo Carabelli is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1862 vs 1775), a higher Elo rating (1817 vs 1776) and a stronger return game (37.7% vs 33.1% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1775.7 Elo 1817.4

1775.3 Elo (surface) 1861.8

333 Wins 57

142 Wins (surface) 47

10 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 1

0.959 Dominance ratio 0.982

65 Rank 58

35.0 Age 27.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Pablo Carreno Busta

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

12 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Pablo Carreno Busta Camilo Ugo Carabelli

1st Serve In %

62.5%

60.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.4%

66.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.7%

50.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.6%

30.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.8%

53.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.30

0.54

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

0.24

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

68.3%

59.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.5%

70.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

38.0%

45.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.17

0.18

Double Faults per Service Game

0.12

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Pablo Carreno Busta Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Break Points Saved %

51.8%

59.6%

Break Points Converted %

38.0%

42.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

52.4%

52.2%

Break Points Converted %

45.1%

45.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Pablo Carreno Busta 0 – 1 Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Clay Umag · 2026-07-15

R16

Camilo Ugo Carabelli #58

Pablo Carreno Busta #65

3-6 7-5 7-5

9 Aces 7

0 Double Faults 0

106 Service Points 103

71 First Serve In 67

43 First Serve Won 45

22 Second Serve Won 22

7 Break Points Saved 5

11 Break Points Faced 8

27 Winners 38

48 Unforced Errors 54

2.3 Average Odds 1.6

Clay Rome Masters · 2025-05-07

R128

Camilo Ugo Carabelli #60

Pablo Carreno Busta #98

6-2 1-6 6-3

1 Aces 1

3 Double Faults 1

78 Service Points 75

55 First Serve In 52

33 First Serve Won 31

13 Second Serve Won 13

0 Break Points Saved 7

3 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Pablo Carreno Busta vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli — Prediction