ATP tennis predict — Ozan Baris vs Liam Broady

Challenger Hard Lexington challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Ozan Baris

USA

42.85%

Liam Broady

Great Britain

57.15%

Average Odds

2.26 / 1.55

Market probability

40.68% / 59.32%

Why This Prediction?

Liam Broady is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1612 vs 1505), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1611 vs 1533) and more wins on hard courts (47 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1505.2 Elo 1612.3

1533.1 Elo (surface) 1611.4

15 Wins (Challenger) 245

14 Wins (surface) 216

6 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.816 Dominance ratio 1.129

486 Rank 199

22.3 Age 32.6

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Ozan Baris

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–3L · 62.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

11 matches with market odds since 2026-06-29.

Liam Broady

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–6L · 45.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ozan Baris Liam Broady

1st Serve In %

—

51.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

69.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

44.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

22.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

47.9%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.44

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.64

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.3%

57.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.7%

72.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.4%

47.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.2%

30.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.0%

52.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.41

0.39

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ozan Baris Liam Broady

Break Points Saved %

—

65.7%

Break Points Converted %

—

30.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

66.7%

64.6%

Break Points Converted %

47.7%

36.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Ozan Baris 0 – 0 Liam Broady

Hard Lexington challenger · 2026-08-04

1. round

Ozan Baris #486

Liam Broady #199

6-4 7-5

5 Aces 7

3 Double Faults 4

85 Service Points 89

46 First Serve In 43

34 First Serve Won 27

19 Second Serve Won 21

10 Break Points Saved 10

12 Break Points Faced 14

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.3 Average Odds 1.6

Ozan Baris vs Liam Broady — Prediction