ATP tennis predict — Ozan Baris vs Alex Rybakov

Challenger Hard San Diego 2 challenger · qualification - round of 16 20:00

Predicted probability

Ozan Baris

USA

35.69%

Alex Rybakov

USA

64.31%

Average Odds

1.55 / 2.33

Market probability

60.05% / 39.95%

Why This Prediction?

Alex Rybakov is the favorite because he has more wins on hard courts (75 vs 17) and more career match wins (122 vs 18).

Player Comparison

1571.3 Elo 1535.1

1555.1 Elo (surface) 1498.7

18 Wins (Challenger) 122

17 Wins (surface) 75

8 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.943 Dominance ratio 1.072

416 Rank 511

22.5 Age 29.6

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Ozan Baris

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–3L · 62.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

11 matches with market odds since 2026-06-29.

Alex Rybakov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

8 matches with market odds since 2026-07-05.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ozan Baris Alex Rybakov

1st Serve In %

—

69.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

69.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

51.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

26.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

43.6%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.50

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.3%

62.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.7%

68.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.4%

55.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.2%

37.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.0%

46.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.41

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ozan Baris Alex Rybakov

Break Points Saved %

—

58.5%

Break Points Converted %

—

43.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

66.7%

71.1%

Break Points Converted %

47.7%

30.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Ozan Baris 0 – 0 Alex Rybakov

Hard San Diego 2 challenger · 2026-09-21

qualification - round of 16

Ozan Baris #416

Alex Rybakov #511

1-6 6-3 6-4

4 Aces 6

2 Double Faults 4

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

31 First Serve Won 37

18 Second Serve Won 14

3 Break Points Saved 2

5 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.6 Average Odds 2.3

Ozan Baris vs Alex Rybakov — Prediction