ATP tennis predict — Otto Virtanen vs Tiago Pereira

Challenger Hard Porto challenger · 1. round 11:00

Predicted probability

Otto Virtanen

Finland

76.32%

Tiago Pereira

Portugal

23.68%

Average Odds

1.17 / 4.28

Market probability

78.53% / 21.47%

Why This Prediction?

Otto Virtanen is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1839 vs 1511), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1786 vs 1501) and more wins on hard courts (30 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1839.0 Elo 1510.6

1786.4 Elo (surface) 1501.0

125 Wins (Challenger) 36

86 Wins (surface) 13

10 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.819 Dominance ratio 1.049

103 Rank 332

25.3 Age 22.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Otto Virtanen

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–8L · 55.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-06-03.

Tiago Pereira

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-06-09.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Otto Virtanen Tiago Pereira

1st Serve In %

58.5%

56.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

76.9%

74.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.5%

50.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.8%

39.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.0%

51.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.65

0.42

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.9%

62.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.6%

68.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.4%

52.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.3%

31.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.1%

43.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.39

0.30

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.24

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Otto Virtanen Tiago Pereira

Break Points Saved %

70.0%

56.2%

Break Points Converted %

34.4%

39.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

57.7%

64.0%

Break Points Converted %

30.6%

37.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Otto Virtanen and Tiago Pereira have never played each other.

Otto Virtanen vs Tiago Pereira — Prediction