ATP tennis predict — Otto Virtanen vs Moez Echargui

Challenger Hard Cancun challenger · 1. round 22:00

Predicted probability

Otto Virtanen

Finland

85.99%

Moez Echargui

Tunisia

14.01%

Average Odds

1.17 / 4.39

Market probability

78.96% / 21.04%

Why This Prediction?

Otto Virtanen is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1761 vs 1434), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1751 vs 1439) and more wins on hard courts (28 vs 7).

Player Comparison

1761.1 Elo 1434.1

1751.4 Elo (surface) 1438.8

125 Wins (Challenger) 91

86 Wins (surface) 42

11 Last 15 form 4

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.790 Dominance ratio 0.908

116 Rank 197

25.2 Age 33.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Otto Virtanen

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–8L · 55.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-06-03.

Moez Echargui

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–6L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Otto Virtanen Moez Echargui

1st Serve In %

58.5%

65.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

76.9%

66.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.5%

45.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.8%

25.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.0%

46.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.65

0.39

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.9%

55.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.6%

60.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.4%

51.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.3%

28.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.1%

56.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.39

0.48

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Otto Virtanen Moez Echargui

Break Points Saved %

70.0%

58.2%

Break Points Converted %

34.4%

39.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

57.7%

57.6%

Break Points Converted %

30.6%

39.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Otto Virtanen 0 – 0 Moez Echargui

Hard Cancun challenger · 2026-08-19

1. round

Moez Echargui #197

Otto Virtanen #116

7-6 7-6

11 Aces 4

5 Double Faults 2

87 Service Points 81

56 First Serve In 48

38 First Serve Won 37

17 Second Serve Won 20

3 Break Points Saved 2

5 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

4.4 Average Odds 1.2

Otto Virtanen vs Moez Echargui — Prediction