ATP tennis predict — Otto Virtanen vs Grigor Dimitrov

Grand Slam Hard US Open · qualification - 3. round 18:30

Predicted probability

Otto Virtanen

Finland

51.48%

Grigor Dimitrov

Bulgaria

48.52%

Average Odds

3.65 / 1.25

Market probability

25.51% / 74.49%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1758.4 Elo 1810.4

1747.5 Elo (surface) 1841.4

56 Wins 516

30 Wins (surface) 343

9 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.861 Dominance ratio 0.880

108 Rank 137

25.2 Age 35.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Otto Virtanen

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–8L · 55.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-06-03.

Grigor Dimitrov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–5L · 28.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-06-16.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Otto Virtanen Grigor Dimitrov

1st Serve In %

58.5%

61.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

76.9%

71.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.5%

52.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.8%

24.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.0%

50.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.65

0.55

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.9%

60.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.6%

77.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.4%

47.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.3%

29.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.1%

47.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.39

0.43

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.33

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Otto Virtanen Grigor Dimitrov

Break Points Saved %

70.0%

48.3%

Break Points Converted %

34.4%

42.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

57.7%

70.0%

Break Points Converted %

30.6%

40.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Otto Virtanen 0 – 0 Grigor Dimitrov

Hard US Open · 2026-08-27

qualification - 3. round

Grigor Dimitrov #137

Otto Virtanen #108

-

- Aces -

- Double Faults -

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

- First Serve Won -

- Second Serve Won -

- Break Points Saved -

- Break Points Faced -

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.2 Average Odds 3.6

Otto Virtanen vs Grigor Dimitrov — Prediction