ATP tennis predict — Otto Virtanen vs Andrey Rublev

Grand Slam Hard US Open · 1. round 17:00

Predicted probability

Otto Virtanen

Finland

35.38%

Andrey Rublev

Russia

64.62%

Average Odds

5.02 / 1.17

Market probability

18.90% / 81.10%

Why This Prediction?

Andrey Rublev is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1831 vs 1747), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1786 vs 1735) and a stronger return game (40.9% vs 31.0% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1746.8 Elo 1830.7

1735.2 Elo (surface) 1786.3

56 Wins 437

30 Wins (surface) 290

8 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.861 Dominance ratio 1.404

109 Rank 24

25.2 Age 28.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Otto Virtanen

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–8L · 55.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-06-03.

Andrey Rublev

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–4L · 63.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Otto Virtanen Andrey Rublev

1st Serve In %

58.5%

59.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

76.9%

74.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.5%

51.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.8%

31.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.0%

46.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.65

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.9%

58.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.6%

74.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.4%

48.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.3%

35.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.1%

55.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.39

0.28

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.18

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Otto Virtanen Andrey Rublev

Break Points Saved %

70.0%

67.2%

Break Points Converted %

34.4%

37.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

57.7%

56.5%

Break Points Converted %

30.6%

48.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Otto Virtanen 0 – 0 Andrey Rublev

Hard US Open · 2026-08-31

1. round

Andrey Rublev #24

Otto Virtanen #109

6-7 6-7 6-0 6-2 7-6

19 Aces 20

7 Double Faults 3

185 Service Points 149

111 First Serve In 95

73 First Serve Won 78

36 Second Serve Won 32

17 Break Points Saved 6

24 Break Points Faced 8

44 Winners 51

42 Unforced Errors 27

1.2 Average Odds 5.0

Otto Virtanen vs Andrey Rublev — Prediction