ATP tennis predict — Oskari Paldanius vs Ivan Marrero Curbelo

Challenger Hard Mallorca challenger · qualification - 1. round 13:00

Predicted probability

Oskari Paldanius

Finland

29.58%

Ivan Marrero Curbelo

Spain

70.42%

Average Odds

1.74 / 1.99

Market probability

53.35% / 46.65%

Why This Prediction?

Ivan Marrero Curbelo is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1559 vs 1450), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1537 vs 1469) and more career match wins (28 vs 2).

Player Comparison

1450.2 Elo 1559.3

1468.6 Elo (surface) 1537.0

2 Wins (Challenger) 28

2 Wins (surface) 18

2 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.979 Dominance ratio 1.089

824 Rank 350

None Age 27.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Oskari Paldanius

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

10 matches with market odds since 2026-06-28.

Ivan Marrero Curbelo

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–5L · 28.6%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-07-19.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Oskari Paldanius Ivan Marrero Curbelo

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

1st Serve In %

67.2%

64.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

62.7%

66.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.5%

52.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.3%

33.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

56.1%

52.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.21

0.23

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.24

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Oskari Paldanius Ivan Marrero Curbelo

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

Break Points Saved %

55.7%

56.9%

Break Points Converted %

54.1%

42.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Oskari Paldanius 0 – 0 Ivan Marrero Curbelo

Hard Mallorca challenger · 2026-08-31

qualification - 1. round

Oskari Paldanius #824

Ivan Marrero Curbelo #350

6-4 2-0

1 Aces 0

2 Double Faults 3

41 Service Points 33

24 First Serve In 21

13 First Serve Won 14

13 Second Serve Won 2

6 Break Points Saved 2

7 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.7 Average Odds 2.0

Oskari Paldanius vs Ivan Marrero Curbelo — Prediction