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Olukayode Alafia Damina Ayeni vs Tiago Cacao — Prediction

Challenger Clay Porto 2 challenger · qualification - round of 16 12:30

Predicted probability

Average Odds

1.86  /  1.84

Market probability

49.73%  /  50.27%

Why This Prediction?

Olukayode Alafia Damina Ayeni is the favorite because he has a stronger return game (43.3% vs 39.2% of return points won), a higher Elo rating (1451 vs 1420) and a stronger serve (64.4% vs 57.8% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1450.9 Elo 1420.2
1478.5 Elo (surface) 1448.8
87 Wins (Challenger) 15
16 Wins (surface) 15
7 Last 15 form 3
0 Head-to-head wins 0
1.217 Dominance ratio 0.930
457 Rank 665
27.1 Age 28.5
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Olukayode Alafia Damina Ayeni

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–4L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–6L · 25.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Tiago Cacao

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

3 matches with market odds since 2026-08-23.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Olukayode Alafia Damina Ayeni Tiago Cacao

1st Serve In %

62.0%
63.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.4%
56.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.6%
50.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.8%
23.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

38.6%
44.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.35
0.11

Double Faults per Service Game

0.52
0.11

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.4%
60.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.6%
64.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.8%
49.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

39.8%
34.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

58.7%
47.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.47
0.17

Double Faults per Service Game

0.38
0.29

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Olukayode Alafia Damina Ayeni Tiago Cacao

Break Points Saved %

65.4%
36.4%

Break Points Converted %

30.0%
66.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

61.0%
57.3%

Break Points Converted %

57.4%
39.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Olukayode Alafia Damina Ayeni 00 Tiago Cacao

Clay Porto 2 challenger · 2026-08-31

qualification - round of 16

Tiago Cacao #665

Olukayode Alafia Damina Ayeni #457

7-6 6-1
2 Aces 6
6 Double Faults 0
66 Service Points 77
41 First Serve In 49
24 First Serve Won 33
11 Second Serve Won 15
0 Break Points Saved 3
4 Break Points Faced 5
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
1.8 Average Odds 1.9

Olukayode Alafia Damina Ayeni — Last 10

L W L W L L W L L W

Tiago Cacao — Last 10

L W W L L L L L L L