ATP tennis predict — Olle Wallin vs Matthew William Donald

Challenger Clay Bari challenger · 1. round 10:00

Predicted probability

Olle Wallin

Sweden

62.04%

Matthew William Donald

Czech Republic

37.96%

Average Odds

1.70 / 2.02

Market probability

54.30% / 45.70%

Why This Prediction?

Olle Wallin is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1674 vs 1582), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1688 vs 1567) and a stronger return game (40.4% vs 35.0% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1674.4 Elo 1582.5

1687.5 Elo (surface) 1566.9

31 Wins (Challenger) 16

25 Wins (surface) 13

10 Last 15 form 8

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.055 Dominance ratio 0.766

415 Rank 460

None Age 21.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Olle Wallin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 8W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-06-15.

Matthew William Donald

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–5L · 28.6%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Olle Wallin Matthew William Donald

1st Serve In %

62.3%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

68.3%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

55.7%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.4%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

41.0%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.46

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.00

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.3%

60.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.5%

62.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.6%

50.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

34.1%

30.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.4%

50.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.36

0.20

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.38

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Olle Wallin Matthew William Donald

Break Points Saved %

38.5%

—

Break Points Converted %

45.5%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.7%

52.9%

Break Points Converted %

37.2%

47.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Olle Wallin 1 – 0 Matthew William Donald

Clay Bonn challenger · 2026-07-27

qualification - round of 16

Olle Wallin #386

Matthew William Donald #455

7-6 6-3

4 Aces 3

2 Double Faults 3

79 Service Points 76

48 First Serve In 53

38 First Serve Won 39

20 Second Serve Won 9

3 Break Points Saved 3

3 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.6 Average Odds 2.2

Olle Wallin vs Matthew William Donald — Prediction