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Oleksandr Ovcharenko vs Lorenzo Angelini — Prediction

Challenger Clay Palermo challenger · qualification - 1. round 14:30

Predicted probability

Oleksandr Ovcharenko

Ukraine

78.07%

Lorenzo Angelini

Italy

21.93%

Average Odds

1.42  /  2.55

Market probability

64.23%  /  35.77%

Why This Prediction?

Oleksandr Ovcharenko is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1613 vs 1410), a higher Elo rating (1577 vs 1394) and a stronger serve (68.2% vs 51.6% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1576.8 Elo 1394.0
1613.5 Elo (surface) 1410.0
20 Wins (Challenger) 5
15 Wins (surface) 5
8 Last 15 form 5
0 Head-to-head wins 0
1.210 Dominance ratio 0.899
615 Rank 569
25.0 Age 20.6
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Oleksandr Ovcharenko

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–0L · 100.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

9 matches with market odds since 2026-08-16.

Lorenzo Angelini

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–2L · 0.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

12 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Oleksandr Ovcharenko Lorenzo Angelini

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

1st Serve In %

62.8%
63.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

77.0%
59.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.7%
48.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.6%
37.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.3%
53.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.43
0.11

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31
0.29

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Oleksandr Ovcharenko Lorenzo Angelini

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

Break Points Saved %

62.3%
52.8%

Break Points Converted %

43.8%
43.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Oleksandr Ovcharenko and Lorenzo Angelini have never played each other.

Oleksandr Ovcharenko — Last 10

L W L W W W W L W W

Lorenzo Angelini — Last 10

L W L L L L L W L L