ATP tennis predict — Nuno Borges vs Orlando Luz

ATP Clay Estoril · 1. round

Predicted probability

Nuno Borges

Portugal

78.55%

Orlando Luz

Brazil

21.45%

Average Odds

1.04 / 11.96

Market probability

92.00% / 8.00%

Why This Prediction?

Nuno Borges is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1778 vs 1543), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1771 vs 1574) and a stronger serve (63.9% vs 61.1% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1777.6 Elo 1543.2

1770.7 Elo (surface) 1574.2

104 Wins 5

36 Wins (surface) 5

9 Last 15 form 5

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.181 Dominance ratio 0.972

48 Rank 1072

29.4 Age 28.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Nuno Borges

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–3L · 78.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Orlando Luz

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

5 matches with market odds since 2026-06-06.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Nuno Borges Orlando Luz

1st Serve In %

58.8%

58.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

78.9%

71.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.3%

51.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.1%

23.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.8%

53.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.66

0.22

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.4%

62.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.5%

69.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.1%

45.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.8%

30.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.49

0.50

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.40

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Nuno Borges Orlando Luz

Break Points Saved %

56.1%

65.5%

Break Points Converted %

31.2%

42.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

66.2%

62.9%

Break Points Converted %

42.9%

32.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Nuno Borges 0 – 0 Orlando Luz

Clay Estoril · 2026-07-21

1. round

Nuno Borges #48

Orlando Luz #1072

6-3 6-3

5 Aces 1

1 Double Faults 1

50 Service Points 70

35 First Serve In 37

30 First Serve Won 25

8 Second Serve Won 15

0 Break Points Saved 5

0 Break Points Faced 8

20 Winners 19

15 Unforced Errors 28

1.0 Average Odds 12.0

Nuno Borges vs Orlando Luz — Prediction