ATP tennis predict — Nuno Borges vs Novak Djokovic

ATP Hard Beijing · 1. round 04:00

Predicted probability

Nuno Borges

Portugal

29.92%

Novak Djokovic

Serbia

70.08%

Average Odds

2.84 / 1.42

Market probability

33.33% / 66.67%

Why This Prediction?

Novak Djokovic is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (2272 vs 1952), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (2226 vs 1878) and more wins on hard courts (754 vs 62).

Player Comparison

1952.0 Elo 2272.4

1878.1 Elo (surface) 2226.0

111 Wins 1202

62 Wins (surface) 754

9 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.107 Dominance ratio 0.864

49 Rank 11

29.6 Age 39.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Nuno Borges

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–3L · 78.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Novak Djokovic

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

11 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Nuno Borges Novak Djokovic

1st Serve In %

58.8%

64.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

78.9%

74.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.3%

48.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.1%

25.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.8%

45.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.66

0.70

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.4%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

72.5%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.1%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.8%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.8%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.49

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

—

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Nuno Borges Novak Djokovic

Break Points Saved %

56.1%

60.8%

Break Points Converted %

31.2%

25.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

66.2%

—

Break Points Converted %

42.9%

—

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Nuno Borges 0 – 1 Novak Djokovic

Hard Athens · 2025-11-02

QF

Novak Djokovic #5

Nuno Borges #47

7-6(1) 6-4

9 Aces 7

1 Double Faults 1

61 Service Points 80

42 First Serve In 53

36 First Serve Won 36

13 Second Serve Won 15

2 Break Points Saved 4

2 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Nuno Borges vs Novak Djokovic — Prediction