ATP tennis predict — Nuno Borges vs Luciano Darderi

ATP Hard Montreal · R16 18:30

Predicted probability

Nuno Borges

Portugal

73.71%

Luciano Darderi

Italy

26.29%

Average Odds

1.58 / 2.35

Market probability

59.80% / 40.20%

Why This Prediction?

Nuno Borges is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1747 vs 1511), a higher Elo rating (1796 vs 1779) and more wins on hard courts (43 vs 1).

Player Comparison

1796.3 Elo 1779.0

1747.3 Elo (surface) 1511.0

108 Wins 92

59 Wins (surface) 17

10 Last 15 form 9

3 Head-to-head wins 1

1.148 Dominance ratio 0.770

55 Rank 22

29.5 Age 24.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Nuno Borges

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–3L · 78.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Luciano Darderi

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–4L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Nuno Borges Luciano Darderi

1st Serve In %

58.8%

58.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

78.9%

71.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.3%

48.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.1%

33.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.8%

54.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.66

0.77

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.4%

52.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.5%

71.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.1%

52.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.8%

36.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.8%

57.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.49

0.41

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Nuno Borges Luciano Darderi

Break Points Saved %

56.1%

68.8%

Break Points Converted %

31.2%

40.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

66.2%

71.2%

Break Points Converted %

42.9%

48.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Nuno Borges 3 – 1 Luciano Darderi

Hard Montreal · 2026-08-08

R16

Luciano Darderi #22

Nuno Borges #55

4-6 6-3 7-5

17 Aces 4

6 Double Faults 1

91 Service Points 100

62 First Serve In 60

50 First Serve Won 44

10 Second Serve Won 21

4 Break Points Saved 5

7 Break Points Faced 7

41 Winners 18

40 Unforced Errors 26

2.4 Average Odds 1.6

Clay Bastad · 2026-07-17

QF

Luciano Darderi #18

Nuno Borges #52

7-6 6-4

7 Aces 5

0 Double Faults 2

77 Service Points 78

56 First Serve In 50

42 First Serve Won 37

9 Second Serve Won 15

2 Break Points Saved 3

4 Break Points Faced 4

29 Winners 28

28 Unforced Errors 28

1.7 Average Odds 2.2

Grass Mallorca · 2026-06-25

QF

Nuno Borges #53

Luciano Darderi #16

7-6 6-4

4 Aces 10

2 Double Faults 0

86 Service Points 65

49 First Serve In 47

35 First Serve Won 38

14 Second Serve Won 13

5 Break Points Saved 4

6 Break Points Faced 4

18 Winners 27

39 Unforced Errors 27

1.5 Average Odds 2.5

Hard Auckland · 2025-01-06

R32

Nuno Borges #36

Luciano Darderi #44

5-7 6-3 7-5

1 Aces 8

1 Double Faults 5

86 Service Points 97

59 First Serve In 55

41 First Serve Won 36

18 Second Serve Won 24

2 Break Points Saved 2

5 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Barletta CH · 2022-04-11

QF

Nuno Borges #149

Luciano Darderi #302

1-6 7-6(4) 6-1

3 Aces 4

3 Double Faults 2

98 Service Points 86

65 First Serve In 30

42 First Serve Won 23

22 Second Serve Won 31

6 Break Points Saved 2

9 Break Points Faced 4