ATP tennis predict — Nuno Borges vs Learner Tien

Grand Slam Hard US Open · 1. round 23:30

Predicted probability

Nuno Borges

Portugal

38.68%

Learner Tien

USA

61.32%

Average Odds

2.69 / 1.48

Market probability

35.49% / 64.51%

Why This Prediction?

Learner Tien is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1868 vs 1812), a stronger return game (39.3% vs 35.7% of return points won) and the advantage of playing in his home country.

Player Comparison

1811.8 Elo 1867.5

1760.6 Elo (surface) 1740.5

111 Wins 77

62 Wins (surface) 59

10 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 2

1.105 Dominance ratio 0.993

41 Rank 15

29.5 Age 20.7

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Nuno Borges

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–3L · 78.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Learner Tien

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–3L · 70.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Nuno Borges Learner Tien

1st Serve In %

58.8%

61.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

78.9%

71.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.3%

43.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.1%

30.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.8%

49.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.66

0.45

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.4%

64.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.5%

68.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.1%

54.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.8%

27.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.8%

59.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.49

0.36

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Nuno Borges Learner Tien

Break Points Saved %

56.1%

55.7%

Break Points Converted %

31.2%

40.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

66.2%

59.7%

Break Points Converted %

42.9%

40.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Nuno Borges 0 – 2 Learner Tien

Hard US Open · 2026-09-01

1. round

Learner Tien #15

Nuno Borges #41

6-4 6-1 6-2

1 Aces 1

5 Double Faults 0

75 Service Points 72

41 First Serve In 41

24 First Serve Won 31

14 Second Serve Won 20

10 Break Points Saved 1

16 Break Points Faced 2

12 Winners 19

34 Unforced Errors 21

1.5 Average Odds 2.7

Hard Australian Open · 2026-01-19

R32

Learner Tien #29

Nuno Borges #46

7-6(9) 6-4 6-2

8 Aces 8

5 Double Faults 2

100 Service Points 96

67 First Serve In 79

49 First Serve Won 51

18 Second Serve Won 7

4 Break Points Saved 3

6 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Paris Masters · 2025-10-27

R64

Learner Tien #39

Nuno Borges #46

6-2 7-6(7)

7 Aces 2

2 Double Faults 1

63 Service Points 69

40 First Serve In 34

32 First Serve Won 24

13 Second Serve Won 17

1 Break Points Saved 5

2 Break Points Faced 8