ATP tennis predict — Nuno Borges vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli

ATP Hard Chengdu · 1. round 04:00

Predicted probability

Nuno Borges

Portugal

74.86%

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Argentina

25.14%

Average Odds

1.21 / 4.42

Market probability

78.51% / 21.49%

Why This Prediction?

Nuno Borges is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1878 vs 1635), a higher Elo rating (1952 vs 1838) and a stronger serve (67.2% vs 60.8% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1952.0 Elo 1838.1

1878.1 Elo (surface) 1634.9

111 Wins 58

62 Wins (surface) 10

9 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.107 Dominance ratio 1.028

48 Rank 75

29.6 Age 27.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Nuno Borges

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–3L · 78.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

12 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Nuno Borges Camilo Ugo Carabelli

1st Serve In %

58.8%

60.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

78.9%

66.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.3%

50.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.1%

30.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.8%

53.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.66

0.54

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.24

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.4%

59.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.5%

70.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.1%

52.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.8%

45.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.8%

52.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.49

0.18

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Nuno Borges Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Break Points Saved %

56.1%

59.6%

Break Points Converted %

31.2%

42.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

66.2%

52.2%

Break Points Converted %

42.9%

45.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Nuno Borges and Camilo Ugo Carabelli have never played each other.

Nuno Borges vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Nuno Borges — Last 10

Camilo Ugo Carabelli — Last 10