ATP tennis predict — Nuno Borges vs Brandon Nakashima

ATP Hard Cincinnati · R16 21:30

Predicted probability

Nuno Borges

Portugal

40.64%

Brandon Nakashima

USA

59.36%

Average Odds

2.29 / 1.62

Market probability

41.43% / 58.57%

Why This Prediction?

Brandon Nakashima is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1844 vs 1773), a stronger serve (68.5% vs 63.9% of service points won) and the advantage of playing in his home country.

Player Comparison

1822.0 Elo 1865.5

1773.0 Elo (surface) 1844.1

111 Wins 180

62 Wins (surface) 123

10 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.086 Dominance ratio 1.134

47 Rank 22

29.5 Age 25.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Nuno Borges

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–3L · 78.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Brandon Nakashima

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Nuno Borges Brandon Nakashima

1st Serve In %

58.8%

59.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

78.9%

77.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.3%

52.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.1%

24.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.8%

51.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.66

0.73

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.24

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.4%

66.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.5%

73.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.1%

54.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.8%

29.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.8%

49.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.49

0.62

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.14

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Nuno Borges Brandon Nakashima

Break Points Saved %

56.1%

73.2%

Break Points Converted %

31.2%

37.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

66.2%

63.5%

Break Points Converted %

42.9%

46.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Nuno Borges 0 – 0 Brandon Nakashima

Hard Cincinnati · 2026-08-20

R16

Brandon Nakashima #22

Nuno Borges #47

6-3 6-7 6-3

8 Aces 27

2 Double Faults 3

98 Service Points 105

59 First Serve In 61

43 First Serve Won 52

20 Second Serve Won 22

7 Break Points Saved 4

9 Break Points Faced 4

28 Winners 39

36 Unforced Errors 36

1.6 Average Odds 2.3

Nuno Borges vs Brandon Nakashima — Prediction