ATP tennis predict — Novak Djokovic vs Hubert Hurkacz

ATP Hard Shanghai · 2. round 12:00

Predicted probability

Novak Djokovic

Serbia

68.69%

Hubert Hurkacz

Poland

31.31%

Average Odds

1.50 / 2.57

Market probability

63.14% / 36.86%

Why This Prediction?

Novak Djokovic is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (2290 vs 2054), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (2246 vs 1984) and a better head-to-head record against Hubert Hurkacz (8-0).

Player Comparison

2289.5 Elo 2054.4

2246.0 Elo (surface) 1984.4

1207 Wins 270

759 Wins (surface) 182

11 Last 15 form 10

8 Head-to-head wins 0

0.864 Dominance ratio 0.990

11 Rank 34

39.4 Age 29.7

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Novak Djokovic

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 7W–2L · 77.8%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Hubert Hurkacz

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–4L · 73.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Novak Djokovic Hubert Hurkacz

1st Serve In %

63.9%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

75.1%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.9%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.6%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

43.9%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.66

0.90

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

—

60.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

69.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

52.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

32.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

47.7%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.59

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Novak Djokovic Hubert Hurkacz

Break Points Saved %

71.4%

65.8%

Break Points Converted %

26.4%

38.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

—

60.0%

Break Points Converted %

—

41.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Novak Djokovic 8 – 0 Hubert Hurkacz

Clay Geneva · 2025-05-18

F

Novak Djokovic #6

Hubert Hurkacz #31

5-7 7-6(2) 7-6(2)

6 Aces 19

3 Double Faults 4

110 Service Points 123

66 First Serve In 79

57 First Serve Won 58

22 Second Serve Won 23

0 Break Points Saved 4

2 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Tour Finals · 2023-11-13

RR

Novak Djokovic #1

Hubert Hurkacz #9

7-6(1) 4-6 6-1

6 Aces 24

1 Double Faults 6

81 Service Points 89

51 First Serve In 52

38 First Serve Won 44

22 Second Serve Won 12

0 Break Points Saved 5

1 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Grass Wimbledon · 2023-07-03

R16

Novak Djokovic #2

Hubert Hurkacz #18

7-6(6) 7-6(6) 5-7 6-4

18 Aces 33

3 Double Faults 4

125 Service Points 146

89 First Serve In 106

79 First Serve Won 86

22 Second Serve Won 19

1 Break Points Saved 7

2 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Dubai · 2023-02-27

QF

Novak Djokovic #1

Hubert Hurkacz #11

6-3 7-5

4 Aces 7

2 Double Faults 1

55 Service Points 57

36 First Serve In 36

29 First Serve Won 28

15 Second Serve Won 12

0 Break Points Saved 6

0 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Madrid Masters · 2022-05-02

QF

Novak Djokovic #1

Hubert Hurkacz #14

6-3 6-4

6 Aces 3

1 Double Faults 2

55 Service Points 55

36 First Serve In 36

29 First Serve Won 28

13 Second Serve Won 7

0 Break Points Saved 4

0 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Paris Masters · 2021-11-01

SF

Novak Djokovic #1

Hubert Hurkacz #10

3-6 6-0 7-6(5)

5 Aces 12

3 Double Faults 2

77 Service Points 104

43 First Serve In 69

33 First Serve Won 49

21 Second Serve Won 12

1 Break Points Saved 8

3 Break Points Faced 12

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Grass Wimbledon · 2019-07-01

R32

Novak Djokovic #1

Hubert Hurkacz #48

7-5 6-7(5) 6-1 6-4

9 Aces 13

8 Double Faults 7

132 Service Points 135

87 First Serve In 82

71 First Serve Won 56

23 Second Serve Won 28

3 Break Points Saved 13

3 Break Points Faced 17

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Roland Garros · 2019-05-27

R128

Novak Djokovic #1

Hubert Hurkacz #44

6-4 6-2 6-2

6 Aces 8

1 Double Faults 2

63 Service Points 74

44 First Serve In 44

36 First Serve Won 26

14 Second Serve Won 12

1 Break Points Saved 3

2 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Novak Djokovic vs Hubert Hurkacz — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Novak Djokovic — Last 10

Hubert Hurkacz — Last 10