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Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev — Prediction

ATP Hard Beijing · SF 13:00

Predicted probability

Novak Djokovic

Serbia

57.46%

Daniil Medvedev

Russia

42.54%

Average Odds

2.16  /  1.69

Market probability

43.90%  /  56.10%

Why This Prediction?

Novak Djokovic is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (2236 vs 2099) and a higher Elo rating (2282 vs 2114).

Player Comparison

2282.0 Elo 2114.3
2236.1 Elo (surface) 2099.4
1205 Wins 497
757 Wins (surface) 375
10 Last 15 form 11
10 Head-to-head wins 5
0.864 Dominance ratio 1.136
11 Rank 6
39.4 Age 30.6
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Novak Djokovic

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 7W–2L · 77.8%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Daniil Medvedev

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 8W–4L · 66.7%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–2L · 71.4%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Novak Djokovic Daniil Medvedev

1st Serve In %

63.3%
60.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

76.6%
78.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.9%
55.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.5%
28.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

41.8%
65.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.79
0.98

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20
0.22

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

—
63.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

—
73.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—
52.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—
27.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—
49.2%

Aces per Service Game

—
0.75

Double Faults per Service Game

—
0.25

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Novak Djokovic Daniil Medvedev

Break Points Saved %

64.0%
78.4%

Break Points Converted %

25.7%
39.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

—
77.0%

Break Points Converted %

—
41.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Novak Djokovic 10 – 5 Daniil Medvedev

Hard Us Open · 2023-08-28

F

Novak Djokovic #2

Daniil Medvedev #3

6-3 7-6(5) 6-3
4 Aces 6
6 Double Faults 6
109 Service Points 106
59 First Serve In 69
48 First Serve Won 49
27 Second Serve Won 14
2 Break Points Saved 3
3 Break Points Faced 6
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Dubai · 2023-02-27

SF

Daniil Medvedev #7

Novak Djokovic #1

6-4 6-4
8 Aces 5
1 Double Faults 1
62 Service Points 62
36 First Serve In 43
28 First Serve Won 29
13 Second Serve Won 11
0 Break Points Saved 1
1 Break Points Faced 4
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Adelaide 1 · 2023-01-02

SF

Novak Djokovic #5

Daniil Medvedev #7

6-3 6-4
5 Aces 5
3 Double Faults 2
61 Service Points 48
35 First Serve In 31
31 First Serve Won 23
14 Second Serve Won 9
3 Break Points Saved 1
3 Break Points Faced 3
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Tour Finals · 2022-11-14

RR

Novak Djokovic #8

Daniil Medvedev #5

6-3 6-7(5) 7-6(2)
9 Aces 16
3 Double Faults 2
131 Service Points 126
85 First Serve In 93
67 First Serve Won 60
22 Second Serve Won 17
5 Break Points Saved 4
6 Break Points Faced 6
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Astana · 2022-10-03

SF

Novak Djokovic #7

Daniil Medvedev #4

4-6 7-6(6) 0-0 RET
3 Aces 9
0 Double Faults 2
67 Service Points 65
42 First Serve In 49
32 First Serve Won 36
11 Second Serve Won 10
0 Break Points Saved 2
2 Break Points Faced 3
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Paris Masters · 2021-11-01

F

Novak Djokovic #1

Daniil Medvedev #2

4-6 6-3 6-3
6 Aces 7
2 Double Faults 3
86 Service Points 88
57 First Serve In 51
45 First Serve Won 30
9 Second Serve Won 18
7 Break Points Saved 1
10 Break Points Faced 6
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Us Open · 2021-08-30

F

Daniil Medvedev #2

Novak Djokovic #1

6-4 6-4 6-4
16 Aces 6
9 Double Faults 3
90 Service Points 92
52 First Serve In 50
42 First Serve Won 40
22 Second Serve Won 17
5 Break Points Saved 4
6 Break Points Faced 8
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Australian Open · 2021-02-08

F

Novak Djokovic #1

Daniil Medvedev #4

7-5 6-2 6-2
3 Aces 6
2 Double Faults 4
78 Service Points 77
52 First Serve In 49
38 First Serve Won 34
15 Second Serve Won 9
2 Break Points Saved 4
4 Break Points Faced 11
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Tour Finals · 2020-11-16

RR

Daniil Medvedev #4

Novak Djokovic #1

6-3 6-3
10 Aces 3
4 Double Faults 5
56 Service Points 68
38 First Serve In 40
30 First Serve Won 27
11 Second Serve Won 12
1 Break Points Saved 5
1 Break Points Faced 8
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Atp Cup · 2020-01-06

SF

Novak Djokovic #2

Daniil Medvedev #5

6-1 5-7 6-4
4 Aces 6
5 Double Faults 5
111 Service Points 108
75 First Serve In 57
53 First Serve Won 35
16 Second Serve Won 25
8 Break Points Saved 6
11 Break Points Faced 11
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Cincinnati Masters · 2019-08-12

SF

Daniil Medvedev #8

Novak Djokovic #1

3-6 6-3 6-3
16 Aces 6
4 Double Faults 1
81 Service Points 69
55 First Serve In 50
43 First Serve Won 36
11 Second Serve Won 12
1 Break Points Saved 0
2 Break Points Faced 3
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Clay Monte Carlo Masters · 2019-04-15

QF

Daniil Medvedev #14

Novak Djokovic #1

6-3 4-6 6-2
3 Aces 4
2 Double Faults 3
82 Service Points 91
40 First Serve In 49
28 First Serve Won 32
26 Second Serve Won 20
2 Break Points Saved 5
4 Break Points Faced 10
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Australian Open · 2019-01-14

R16

Novak Djokovic #1

Daniil Medvedev #19

6-4 6-7(5) 6-2 6-3
6 Aces 18
5 Double Faults 6
126 Service Points 142
84 First Serve In 93
61 First Serve Won 65
21 Second Serve Won 17
7 Break Points Saved 11
9 Break Points Faced 18
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Grass Eastbourne · 2017-06-26

SF

Novak Djokovic #4

Daniil Medvedev #52

6-4 6-4
5 Aces 4
4 Double Faults 3
64 Service Points 59
37 First Serve In 35
32 First Serve Won 23
11 Second Serve Won 13
3 Break Points Saved 3
4 Break Points Faced 6
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Davis Cup WG R1: RUS vs SRB · 2017-02-03

RR

Novak Djokovic #2

Daniil Medvedev #63

3-6 6-4 6-1 1-0 RET
4 Aces 7
3 Double Faults 2
104 Service Points 96
70 First Serve In 51
42 First Serve Won 29
16 Second Serve Won 20
9 Break Points Saved 6
14 Break Points Faced 13
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -

Novak Djokovic — Last 10

W W W L L L W W W W

Daniil Medvedev — Last 10

W W W W W W W L W W