ATP tennis predict — Novak Djokovic vs Alex De Minaur

ATP Hard Beijing · F 13:00

Predicted probability

Novak Djokovic

Serbia

58.33%

Alex De Minaur

Australia

41.67%

Average Odds

1.52 / 2.52

Market probability

62.38% / 37.62%

Why This Prediction?

Novak Djokovic is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (2286 vs 2123), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (2241 vs 2085) and a stronger serve (64.9% vs 60.3% of service points won).

Player Comparison

2285.7 Elo 2123.1

2241.3 Elo (surface) 2085.4

1206 Wins 359

758 Wins (surface) 263

11 Last 15 form 11

4 Head-to-head wins 1

0.864 Dominance ratio 0.896

11 Rank 9

39.4 Age 27.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Novak Djokovic

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 7W–2L · 77.8%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Alex De Minaur

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 10W–3L · 76.9%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Novak Djokovic Alex De Minaur

1st Serve In %

63.4%

54.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

76.1%

68.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.9%

47.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.8%

26.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

42.4%

43.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.73

0.38

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

—

66.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

74.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

58.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

32.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

53.8%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.32

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Novak Djokovic Alex De Minaur

Break Points Saved %

70.7%

64.4%

Break Points Converted %

29.3%

32.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

—

71.1%

Break Points Converted %

—

42.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Novak Djokovic 4 – 1 Alex De Minaur

Grass Wimbledon · 2025-06-30

R16

Novak Djokovic #6

Alex De Minaur #11

1-6 6-4 6-4 6-4

6 Aces 1

5 Double Faults 4

129 Service Points 113

85 First Serve In 62

59 First Serve Won 35

18 Second Serve Won 29

13 Break Points Saved 7

19 Break Points Faced 13

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Grass Wimbledon · 2024-07-01

QF

Novak Djokovic #2

Alex De Minaur #9

W/O

- Aces -

- Double Faults -

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

- First Serve Won -

- Second Serve Won -

- Break Points Saved -

- Break Points Faced -

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Monte Carlo Masters · 2024-04-08

QF

Novak Djokovic #1

Alex De Minaur #11

7-5 6-4

2 Aces 3

1 Double Faults 4

64 Service Points 71

42 First Serve In 30

27 First Serve Won 18

13 Second Serve Won 20

4 Break Points Saved 6

7 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard United Cup · 2024-01-01

QF

Alex De Minaur #12

Novak Djokovic #1

6-4 6-4

7 Aces 4

2 Double Faults 1

49 Service Points 68

34 First Serve In 43

33 First Serve Won 30

8 Second Serve Won 11

0 Break Points Saved 3

0 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Australian Open · 2023-01-16

R16

Novak Djokovic #5

Alex De Minaur #24

6-2 6-1 6-2

4 Aces 3

3 Double Faults 2

68 Service Points 82

44 First Serve In 50

33 First Serve Won 26

16 Second Serve Won 14

0 Break Points Saved 6

0 Break Points Faced 12

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Novak Djokovic vs Alex De Minaur — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Novak Djokovic — Last 10

Alex De Minaur — Last 10