ATP tennis predict — Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Hanlei Lu

ATP Hard Chengdu · qualification - round of 16 10:00

Predicted probability

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Georgia

92.74%

Hanlei Lu

China

7.26%

Average Odds

1.03 / 10.99

Market probability

91.43% / 8.57%

Why This Prediction?

Nikoloz Basilashvili is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1749 vs 1412), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1693 vs 1412) and more career match wins (114 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1748.5 Elo 1411.9

1692.7 Elo (surface) 1412.5

246 Wins 0

141 Wins (surface) 0

8 Last 15 form 0

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.919 Dominance ratio 0.919

145 Rank 1741

34.6 Age None

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–6L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-06-06.

Hanlei Lu

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

2 matches with market odds since 2026-08-30.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Nikoloz Basilashvili Hanlei Lu

1st Serve In %

57.9%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

66.0%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.0%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.7%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.9%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.53

0.00

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.43

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

51.4%

56.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.8%

71.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.1%

63.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.5%

47.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.4%

66.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.74

0.29

Double Faults per Service Game

0.53

0.00

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Nikoloz Basilashvili Hanlei Lu

Break Points Saved %

60.3%

54.5%

Break Points Converted %

40.9%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.0%

100.0%

Break Points Converted %

42.0%

41.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Nikoloz Basilashvili 0 – 0 Hanlei Lu

Hard Chengdu · 2026-09-22

qualification - round of 16

Nikoloz Basilashvili #145

Hanlei Lu #1741

6-2 6-0

4 Aces 0

1 Double Faults 3

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

18 First Serve Won 19

10 Second Serve Won 8

0 Break Points Saved 6

0 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.0 Average Odds 11.0

Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Hanlei Lu — Prediction