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Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Botic Van De Zandschulp — Prediction

ATP Hard Chengdu · R16 10:30

Predicted probability

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Georgia

28.55%

Botic Van De Zandschulp

Netherlands

71.45%

Average Odds

2.56  /  1.50

Market probability

36.95%  /  63.05%

Why This Prediction?

Botic Van De Zandschulp is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1934 vs 1723), a higher Elo rating (1960 vs 1772) and a stronger return game (48.1% vs 35.3% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1771.6 Elo 1960.5
1723.1 Elo (surface) 1934.2
249 Wins 176
144 Wins (surface) 119
8 Last 15 form 10
0 Head-to-head wins 0
0.919 Dominance ratio 1.140
145 Rank 40
34.6 Age 31.0
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–2L · 50.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–6L · 0.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–2L · 60.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-06-06.

Botic Van De Zandschulp

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–1L · 88.9%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–4L · 42.9%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Nikoloz Basilashvili Botic Van De Zandschulp

1st Serve In %

56.6%
58.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.7%
74.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.3%
44.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.7%
29.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.4%
54.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.55
0.61

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27
0.41

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

51.4%
60.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.8%
71.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.1%
45.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.5%
38.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.4%
59.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.74
0.52

Double Faults per Service Game

0.53
0.40

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Nikoloz Basilashvili Botic Van De Zandschulp

Break Points Saved %

65.8%
62.0%

Break Points Converted %

40.6%
48.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.0%
50.0%

Break Points Converted %

42.0%
45.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Nikoloz Basilashvili and Botic Van De Zandschulp have never played each other.

Nikoloz Basilashvili — Last 10

W W W L L L L W L L

Botic Van De Zandschulp — Last 10

L W W W W L W W L W