ATP tennis predict — Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

ATP Hard Chengdu · SF 11:00

Predicted probability

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Georgia

23.74%

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Spain

76.26%

Average Odds

2.87 / 1.41

Market probability

32.94% / 67.06%

Why This Prediction?

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (2043 vs 1796), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1964 vs 1755) and fewer double faults per game (0.14 vs 0.30).

Player Comparison

1796.3 Elo 2042.6

1754.9 Elo (surface) 1963.6

251 Wins 208

146 Wins (surface) 114

8 Last 15 form 12

1 Head-to-head wins 0

0.919 Dominance ratio 0.927

121 Rank 28

34.6 Age 27.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–6L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-06-06.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–2L · 80.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Nikoloz Basilashvili Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

1st Serve In %

54.0%

66.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

60.3%

73.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.2%

51.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.8%

29.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.0%

47.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.44

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

51.4%

66.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.8%

68.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.1%

51.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.5%

39.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.4%

56.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.74

0.28

Double Faults per Service Game

0.53

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Nikoloz Basilashvili Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Break Points Saved %

67.6%

60.6%

Break Points Converted %

46.9%

32.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.0%

60.7%

Break Points Converted %

42.0%

50.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Nikoloz Basilashvili 1 – 0 Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Hard Metz · 2021-09-20

R16

Nikoloz Basilashvili #36

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina #45

0-6 6-4 7-6(4)

7 Aces 7

3 Double Faults 4

127 Service Points 122

67 First Serve In 93

48 First Serve Won 62

25 Second Serve Won 12

10 Break Points Saved 6

14 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina — Prediction