ATP tennis predict — Nikita Ianin vs Taisei Ichikawa

Challenger Hard Phan Thiet 4 challenger · qualification - 1. round 10:30

Predicted probability

Nikita Ianin

Russia

16.54%

Taisei Ichikawa

Japan

83.46%

Average Odds

4.19 / 1.19

Market probability

22.12% / 77.88%

Why This Prediction?

Taisei Ichikawa is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1551 vs 1437), a higher Elo rating (1549 vs 1436) and better recent form (8 wins in his last 15 matches vs 0).

Player Comparison

1436.5 Elo 1549.1

1437.4 Elo (surface) 1550.6

0 Wins (Challenger) 24

0 Wins (surface) 24

0 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.439 Dominance ratio 0.935

1017 Rank 768

25.0 Age 25.7

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Nikita Ianin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

2 matches with market odds since 2026-09-06.

Taisei Ichikawa

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

7 matches with market odds since 2026-08-09.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Nikita Ianin Taisei Ichikawa

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

1st Serve In %

69.8%

57.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.0%

65.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.2%

48.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.3%

30.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

62.1%

52.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.17

0.42

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.35

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Nikita Ianin Taisei Ichikawa

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

Break Points Saved %

50.0%

59.6%

Break Points Converted %

47.1%

33.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Nikita Ianin 0 – 0 Taisei Ichikawa

Hard Phan Thiet 4 challenger · 2026-09-13

qualification - 1. round

Taisei Ichikawa #768

Nikita Ianin #1017

6-2 6-2

5 Aces 2

4 Double Faults 1

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

17 First Serve Won 25

10 Second Serve Won 7

2 Break Points Saved 0

6 Break Points Faced 0

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.2 Average Odds 4.2

Nikita Ianin vs Taisei Ichikawa — Prediction