ATP tennis predict — Niels Mcdonald vs Eduardo Ribeiro

Challenger Clay Hamburg challenger · R16 12:00

Predicted probability

Niels Mcdonald

Germany

53.02%

Eduardo Ribeiro

Brazil

46.98%

Average Odds

1.49 / 2.49

Market probability

62.56% / 37.44%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1543.8 Elo 1549.8

1570.9 Elo (surface) 1568.4

8 Wins (Challenger) 51

8 Wins (surface) 48

6 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.027 Dominance ratio 0.770

526 Rank 372

None Age 28.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Niels Mcdonald

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-06-23.

Eduardo Ribeiro

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 2W–0L · 100.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-06-16.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Niels Mcdonald Eduardo Ribeiro

1st Serve In %

64.3%

66.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

59.4%

61.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

33.8%

42.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.7%

33.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.8%

48.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.31

0.21

Double Faults per Service Game

0.42

0.06

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.0%

68.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.5%

66.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.6%

54.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.5%

35.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.4%

42.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.28

0.21

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Niels Mcdonald Eduardo Ribeiro

Break Points Saved %

50.0%

68.4%

Break Points Converted %

33.3%

39.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.3%

52.6%

Break Points Converted %

49.0%

39.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Niels Mcdonald 0 – 0 Eduardo Ribeiro

Clay Hamburg challenger · 2026-08-12

R16

Niels Mcdonald #526

Eduardo Ribeiro #372

4-6 6-3 6-4

2 Aces 3

3 Double Faults 2

92 Service Points 103

66 First Serve In 64

45 First Serve Won 40

10 Second Serve Won 15

6 Break Points Saved 8

10 Break Points Faced 14

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.5 Average Odds 2.5

Niels Mcdonald vs Eduardo Ribeiro — Prediction