ATP tennis predict — Nicolas Mejia vs Martin Landaluce

ATP Hard Montreal · 1. round

Predicted probability

Nicolas Mejia

Colombia

38.29%

Martin Landaluce

Spain

61.71%

Average Odds

2.97 / 1.39

Market probability

31.88% / 68.12%

Why This Prediction?

Martin Landaluce is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1667 vs 1554), a stronger return game (43.3% vs 40.8% of return points won) and a higher Elo rating (1701 vs 1668).

Player Comparison

1668.1 Elo 1701.0

1554.2 Elo (surface) 1667.3

18 Wins 23

8 Wins (surface) 16

9 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.143 Dominance ratio 1.003

131 Rank 63

26.5 Age 20.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Nicolas Mejia

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 7W–1L · 87.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Martin Landaluce

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

9 matches with market odds since 2026-06-29.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Nicolas Mejia Martin Landaluce

1st Serve In %

57.6%

56.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.0%

71.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.4%

48.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.0%

29.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.3%

52.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.47

0.38

Double Faults per Service Game

0.34

0.57

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.7%

64.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.6%

69.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.8%

45.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.1%

32.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.8%

54.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.54

0.27

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Nicolas Mejia Martin Landaluce

Break Points Saved %

62.0%

68.7%

Break Points Converted %

36.1%

40.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.9%

69.4%

Break Points Converted %

34.2%

47.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Nicolas Mejia 0 – 0 Martin Landaluce

Hard Montreal · 2026-08-03

1. round

Nicolas Mejia #129

Martin Landaluce #64

4-6 6-4 6-3

1 Aces 6

3 Double Faults 10

83 Service Points 99

45 First Serve In 51

32 First Serve Won 37

20 Second Serve Won 21

2 Break Points Saved 12

5 Break Points Faced 16

15 Winners 21

42 Unforced Errors 63

3.0 Average Odds 1.4

Nicolas Mejia vs Martin Landaluce — Prediction