ATP tennis predict — Nicolas Mejia vs Lorenzo Musetti

ATP Hard Montreal · 2. round 17:00

Predicted probability

Nicolas Mejia

Colombia

34.23%

Lorenzo Musetti

Italy

65.77%

Average Odds

6.49 / 1.11

Market probability

14.61% / 85.39%

Why This Prediction?

Lorenzo Musetti is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1834 vs 1681), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1658 vs 1573) and more wins on hard courts (102 vs 9).

Player Comparison

1681.0 Elo 1833.6

1573.2 Elo (surface) 1657.7

19 Wins 210

9 Wins (surface) 102

9 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.063 Dominance ratio 0.828

129 Rank 13

26.5 Age 24.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Nicolas Mejia

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 7W–1L · 87.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Lorenzo Musetti

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

11 matches with market odds since 2026-07-27.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Nicolas Mejia Lorenzo Musetti

1st Serve In %

57.6%

53.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.0%

65.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.4%

44.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.0%

26.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.3%

45.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.47

0.27

Double Faults per Service Game

0.34

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.7%

63.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.6%

68.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.8%

50.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.1%

39.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.8%

54.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.54

0.17

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Nicolas Mejia Lorenzo Musetti

Break Points Saved %

62.0%

54.5%

Break Points Converted %

36.1%

35.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.9%

65.6%

Break Points Converted %

34.2%

49.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Nicolas Mejia 0 – 0 Lorenzo Musetti

Hard Montreal · 2026-08-05

2. round

Lorenzo Musetti #13

Nicolas Mejia #129

7-6 6-2

3 Aces 3

3 Double Faults 1

81 Service Points 66

46 First Serve In 45

33 First Serve Won 33

17 Second Serve Won 15

10 Break Points Saved 1

12 Break Points Faced 1

22 Winners 24

34 Unforced Errors 31

1.1 Average Odds 6.5

Nicolas Mejia vs Lorenzo Musetti — Prediction