ATP tennis predict — Nicolas Mejia vs Liam Draxl

Grand Slam Hard US Open · qualification - 1. round 23:00

Predicted probability

Nicolas Mejia

Colombia

54.79%

Liam Draxl

Canada

45.21%

Average Odds

1.90 / 1.85

Market probability

49.33% / 50.67%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1680.9 Elo 1611.9

1571.1 Elo (surface) 1571.6

21 Wins 13

11 Wins (surface) 10

9 Last 15 form 9

1 Head-to-head wins 1

1.098 Dominance ratio 0.943

115 Rank 217

26.5 Age 24.7

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Nicolas Mejia

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 7W–1L · 87.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Liam Draxl

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–3L · 70.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-06-03.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Nicolas Mejia Liam Draxl

1st Serve In %

57.6%

62.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.0%

68.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.4%

49.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.0%

35.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.3%

52.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.47

Double Faults per Service Game

0.34

0.24

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.7%

61.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.6%

70.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.8%

49.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.1%

32.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.8%

53.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.54

0.41

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Nicolas Mejia Liam Draxl

Break Points Saved %

62.0%

51.4%

Break Points Converted %

36.1%

41.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.9%

50.0%

Break Points Converted %

34.2%

47.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Nicolas Mejia 1 – 1 Liam Draxl

Hard US Open · 2026-08-26

qualification - 1. round

Liam Draxl #217

Nicolas Mejia #115

6-4 6-7 6-4

4 Aces 11

3 Double Faults 5

98 Service Points 108

54 First Serve In 66

37 First Serve Won 48

21 Second Serve Won 20

6 Break Points Saved 6

11 Break Points Faced 9

30 Winners 29

59 Unforced Errors 50

1.9 Average Odds 1.9

Clay Savannah CH · 2025-04-21

F

Nicolas Mejia #301

Liam Draxl #156

2-6 6-2 7-6(3)

4 Aces 3

2 Double Faults 1

100 Service Points 103

64 First Serve In 72

39 First Serve Won 39

20 Second Serve Won 18

9 Break Points Saved 3

14 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Oeiras 3 CH · 2025-01-20

QF

Liam Draxl #208

Nicolas Mejia #224

7-6(3) 7-5

2 Aces 2

8 Double Faults 2

89 Service Points 75

57 First Serve In 51

41 First Serve Won 29

10 Second Serve Won 12

5 Break Points Saved 4

8 Break Points Faced 8