ATP tennis predict — Nicolas Mejia vs Jacob Fearnley

ATP Hard Cincinnati · qualification - 1. round 16:00

Predicted probability

Nicolas Mejia

Colombia

28.82%

Jacob Fearnley

Great Britain

71.18%

Average Odds

3.51 / 1.28

Market probability

26.72% / 73.28%

Why This Prediction?

Jacob Fearnley is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1852 vs 1674), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1684 vs 1562) and a stronger return game (41.8% vs 40.8% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1674.1 Elo 1852.1

1562.2 Elo (surface) 1684.2

19 Wins 39

9 Wins (surface) 21

8 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.082 Dominance ratio 1.043

129 Rank 110

26.5 Age 25.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Nicolas Mejia

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 7W–1L · 87.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Jacob Fearnley

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–2L · 81.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Nicolas Mejia Jacob Fearnley

1st Serve In %

57.6%

59.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.0%

72.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.4%

48.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.0%

28.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.3%

55.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.47

0.53

Double Faults per Service Game

0.34

0.43

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.7%

56.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.6%

73.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.8%

49.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.1%

31.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.8%

53.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.54

0.34

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.42

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Nicolas Mejia Jacob Fearnley

Break Points Saved %

62.0%

62.4%

Break Points Converted %

36.1%

42.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.9%

47.5%

Break Points Converted %

34.2%

43.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Nicolas Mejia 0 – 0 Jacob Fearnley

Hard Cincinnati · 2026-08-13

qualification - 1. round

Nicolas Mejia #129

Jacob Fearnley #110

6-3 3-6 6-2

1 Aces 4

2 Double Faults 7

78 Service Points 77

46 First Serve In 37

32 First Serve Won 28

19 Second Serve Won 19

4 Break Points Saved 4

6 Break Points Faced 8

17 Winners 26

30 Unforced Errors 44

3.5 Average Odds 1.3

Nicolas Mejia vs Jacob Fearnley — Prediction