ATP tennis predict — Nicolas Arseneault vs Tristan Schoolkate

Challenger Hard Quebec City challenger · qualification - round of 16 18:30

Predicted probability

Nicolas Arseneault

Canada

26.06%

Tristan Schoolkate

Australia

73.94%

Average Odds

3.98 / 1.21

Market probability

23.31% / 76.69%

Why This Prediction?

Tristan Schoolkate is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1598 vs 1403), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1590 vs 1404) and a stronger serve (65.5% vs 63.5% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1402.9 Elo 1597.7

1404.4 Elo (surface) 1590.1

9 Wins (Challenger) 117

9 Wins (surface) 98

5 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.081 Dominance ratio 1.066

1100 Rank 188

19.6 Age 25.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Nicolas Arseneault

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–5L · 16.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

7 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Tristan Schoolkate

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Nicolas Arseneault Tristan Schoolkate

1st Serve In %

59.9%

60.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.4%

71.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

43.4%

54.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

19.8%

23.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.9%

48.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.52

0.60

Double Faults per Service Game

0.41

0.33

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.2%

59.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.9%

70.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.6%

50.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.2%

27.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.9%

43.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.28

0.45

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.17

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Nicolas Arseneault Tristan Schoolkate

Break Points Saved %

57.9%

54.9%

Break Points Converted %

33.3%

31.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

51.1%

64.6%

Break Points Converted %

37.7%

31.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Nicolas Arseneault 0 – 0 Tristan Schoolkate

Hard Quebec City challenger · 2026-08-17

qualification - round of 16

Tristan Schoolkate #188

Nicolas Arseneault #1100

7-5 6-4

5 Aces 7

3 Double Faults 2

79 Service Points 60

51 First Serve In 32

34 First Serve Won 25

11 Second Serve Won 16

9 Break Points Saved 0

12 Break Points Faced 1

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.2 Average Odds 4.0

Nicolas Arseneault vs Tristan Schoolkate — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Nicolas Arseneault — Last 10

Tristan Schoolkate — Last 10