ATP tennis predict — Nicolas Arseneault vs Keegan Rice

Challenger Hard Winnipeg challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Nicolas Arseneault

Canada

61.53%

Keegan Rice

Canada

38.47%

Average Odds

2.56 / 1.47

Market probability

36.48% / 63.52%

Why This Prediction?

Nicolas Arseneault is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1479 vs 1446), more career match wins (9 vs 4) and a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1480 vs 1449).

Player Comparison

1479.1 Elo 1446.2

1480.0 Elo (surface) 1449.4

9 Wins (Challenger) 4

9 Wins (surface) 4

7 Last 15 form 4

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.912 Dominance ratio 1.001

718 Rank 900

19.5 Age 20.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Nicolas Arseneault

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–5L · 16.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

7 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Keegan Rice

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

8 matches with market odds since 2026-07-14.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Nicolas Arseneault Keegan Rice

1st Serve In %

59.9%

64.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.4%

81.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

43.4%

38.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

19.8%

7.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.9%

42.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.52

0.44

Double Faults per Service Game

0.41

0.11

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.2%

62.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.9%

63.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.6%

49.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.2%

35.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.9%

50.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.28

0.34

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.33

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Nicolas Arseneault Keegan Rice

Break Points Saved %

57.9%

66.7%

Break Points Converted %

33.3%

0.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

51.1%

50.0%

Break Points Converted %

37.7%

46.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Nicolas Arseneault 0 – 0 Keegan Rice

Hard Winnipeg challenger · 2026-07-21

1. round

Keegan Rice #900

Nicolas Arseneault #718

6-3 7-6

0 Aces 0

2 Double Faults 2

55 Service Points 64

40 First Serve In 43

26 First Serve Won 30

7 Second Serve Won 15

0 Break Points Saved 1

3 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.5 Average Odds 2.6

Nicolas Arseneault vs Keegan Rice — Prediction