ATP tennis predict — Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Yanis Ghazouani Durand

Challenger Hard Cassis challenger · R16 11:30

Predicted probability

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Norway

80.64%

Yanis Ghazouani Durand

France

19.36%

Average Odds

1.14 / 5.17

Market probability

81.93% / 18.07%

Why This Prediction?

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1757 vs 1539), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1746 vs 1640) and more wins on hard courts (12 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1757.0 Elo 1538.8

1745.6 Elo (surface) 1639.8

52 Wins (Challenger) 7

31 Wins (surface) 6

7 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.975 Dominance ratio 1.111

149 Rank 595

20.0 Age 26.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–6L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Yanis Ghazouani Durand

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

12 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Yanis Ghazouani Durand

1st Serve In %

57.9%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

71.6%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.5%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.9%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.0%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.31

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.5%

59.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.2%

70.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

58.6%

61.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.4%

28.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.6%

61.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.39

0.34

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.38

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Yanis Ghazouani Durand

Break Points Saved %

67.1%

—

Break Points Converted %

36.8%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

54.9%

54.3%

Break Points Converted %

47.5%

44.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer 0 – 0 Yanis Ghazouani Durand

Hard Cassis challenger · 2026-09-10

R16

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer #149

Yanis Ghazouani Durand #595

6-1 7-6

4 Aces 2

2 Double Faults 8

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

29 First Serve Won 23

7 Second Serve Won 9

1 Break Points Saved 5

4 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.1 Average Odds 5.2

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Yanis Ghazouani Durand — Prediction