ATP tennis predict — Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Moez Echargui

Challenger Hard Cassis challenger · QF 12:00

Predicted probability

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Norway

78.15%

Moez Echargui

Tunisia

21.85%

Average Odds

1.42 / 2.73

Market probability

65.78% / 34.22%

Why This Prediction?

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1761 vs 1633), a higher Elo rating (1765 vs 1661) and a stronger serve (63.0% vs 58.3% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1764.6 Elo 1661.1

1761.2 Elo (surface) 1632.5

53 Wins (Challenger) 96

32 Wins (surface) 47

7 Last 15 form 5

1 Head-to-head wins 0

0.975 Dominance ratio 0.989

149 Rank 226

20.0 Age 33.7

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–6L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Moez Echargui

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–6L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Moez Echargui

1st Serve In %

57.9%

65.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.6%

66.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.5%

45.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.9%

25.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.0%

46.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.31

0.39

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.5%

55.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.2%

60.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

58.6%

51.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.4%

28.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.6%

56.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.39

0.48

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Moez Echargui

Break Points Saved %

67.1%

58.2%

Break Points Converted %

36.8%

39.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

54.9%

57.6%

Break Points Converted %

47.5%

39.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer 1 – 0 Moez Echargui

Hard Cassis challenger · 2026-09-11

QF

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer #149

Moez Echargui #226

6-7 7-5 6-1

0 Aces 8

4 Double Faults 1

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

47 First Serve Won 33

18 Second Serve Won 20

6 Break Points Saved 4

9 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 2.7

Clay Madrid Masters · 2026-04-22

Q2

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer #140

Moez Echargui #144

6-1 6-0

3 Aces 0

1 Double Faults 0

37 Service Points 42

28 First Serve In 24

23 First Serve Won 12

4 Second Serve Won 3

1 Break Points Saved 3

1 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Moez Echargui — Prediction