ATP tennis predict — Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Hugo Gaston

ATP Hard Cincinnati · qualification - 1. round 02:35

Predicted probability

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Norway

40.18%

Hugo Gaston

France

59.82%

Average Odds

2.09 / 1.70

Market probability

44.85% / 55.15%

Why This Prediction?

Hugo Gaston is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1734 vs 1565), a higher Elo rating (1683 vs 1557) and a stronger return game (43.5% vs 35.8% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1557.4 Elo 1682.7

1564.7 Elo (surface) 1733.6

22 Wins 90

10 Wins (surface) 44

8 Last 15 form 8

1 Head-to-head wins 1

1.219 Dominance ratio 1.265

152 Rank 96

20.0 Age 25.9

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–6L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Hugo Gaston

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–5L · 44.4%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Hugo Gaston

1st Serve In %

57.9%

54.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.6%

70.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.5%

50.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.9%

37.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.0%

48.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.31

0.17

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.5%

57.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.2%

68.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

58.6%

48.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.4%

33.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.6%

51.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.39

0.20

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.15

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Hugo Gaston

Break Points Saved %

67.1%

52.8%

Break Points Converted %

36.8%

45.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

54.9%

53.9%

Break Points Converted %

47.5%

37.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer 1 – 1 Hugo Gaston

Hard Cincinnati · 2026-08-12

qualification - 1. round

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer #152

Hugo Gaston #96

6-2 3-6 6-4

0 Aces 4

5 Double Faults 4

86 Service Points 92

47 First Serve In 54

28 First Serve Won 40

21 Second Serve Won 14

3 Break Points Saved 5

7 Break Points Faced 8

17 Winners 19

47 Unforced Errors 52

2.0 Average Odds 1.7

Hard Roanne CH · 2025-10-06

QF

Hugo Gaston #101

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer #149

6-4 3-6 6-1

2 Aces 3

1 Double Faults 7

73 Service Points 79

43 First Serve In 30

30 First Serve Won 21

18 Second Serve Won 25

2 Break Points Saved 2

4 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Orleans CH · 2025-09-22

R32

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer #155

Hugo Gaston #105

6-3 6-4

5 Aces 1

3 Double Faults 2

57 Service Points 57

32 First Serve In 30

25 First Serve Won 21

9 Second Serve Won 11

1 Break Points Saved 2

3 Break Points Faced 6