ATP tennis predict — Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Christopher Oconnell

Grand Slam Hard US Open · qualification - 2. round 21:30

Predicted probability

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Norway

53.85%

Christopher Oconnell

Australia

46.15%

Average Odds

1.94 / 1.69

Market probability

46.56% / 53.44%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1606.7 Elo 1754.4

1614.2 Elo (surface) 1688.4

24 Wins 128

12 Wins (surface) 95

9 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.047 Dominance ratio 0.805

149 Rank 105

20.0 Age 32.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–6L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Christopher Oconnell

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–4L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-06-03.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Christopher Oconnell

1st Serve In %

57.9%

55.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.6%

72.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.5%

46.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.9%

26.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.0%

44.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.31

0.53

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.5%

60.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.2%

71.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

58.6%

49.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.4%

22.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.6%

41.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.39

0.78

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Christopher Oconnell

Break Points Saved %

67.1%

56.7%

Break Points Converted %

36.8%

32.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

54.9%

52.8%

Break Points Converted %

47.5%

23.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer 0 – 0 Christopher Oconnell

Hard US Open · 2026-08-26

qualification - 2. round

Christopher Oconnell #105

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer #149

7-5 6-4

2 Aces 3

3 Double Faults 0

76 Service Points 67

52 First Serve In 34

31 First Serve Won 27

11 Second Serve Won 21

5 Break Points Saved 9

8 Break Points Faced 10

17 Winners 21

30 Unforced Errors 18

1.7 Average Odds 1.9

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Christopher Oconnell — Prediction