ATP tennis predict — Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Bu Yunchaokete

Challenger Hard Quebec City challenger · 1. round 20:30

Predicted probability

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Norway

32.16%

Bu Yunchaokete

China

67.84%

Average Odds

2.57 / 1.43

Market probability

35.75% / 64.25%

Why This Prediction?

Bu Yunchaokete is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1803 vs 1569), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1719 vs 1573) and a stronger serve (68.9% vs 61.4% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1568.9 Elo 1802.9

1572.9 Elo (surface) 1719.2

50 Wins (Challenger) 104

29 Wins (surface) 80

8 Last 15 form 13

0 Head-to-head wins 1

0.982 Dominance ratio 0.785

155 Rank 120

20.0 Age 24.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–6L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Bu Yunchaokete

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Bu Yunchaokete

1st Serve In %

57.9%

61.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.6%

79.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.5%

48.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.9%

26.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.0%

50.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.31

0.69

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.5%

60.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.2%

70.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

58.6%

43.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.4%

24.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.6%

40.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.39

0.44

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Bu Yunchaokete

Break Points Saved %

67.1%

40.5%

Break Points Converted %

36.8%

43.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

54.9%

38.6%

Break Points Converted %

47.5%

18.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer 0 – 1 Bu Yunchaokete

Hard Quebec City challenger · 2026-08-18

1. round

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer #155

Bu Yunchaokete #120

6-3 6-1

6 Aces 3

1 Double Faults 6

42 Service Points 56

24 First Serve In 19

19 First Serve Won 13

14 Second Serve Won 15

0 Break Points Saved 4

0 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.6 Average Odds 1.4

Clay Monte Carlo Masters · 2025-04-07

Q1

Bu Yunchaokete #67

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer #306

6-3 6-1

5 Aces 1

0 Double Faults 3

45 Service Points 55

21 First Serve In 29

18 First Serve Won 15

15 Second Serve Won 12

1 Break Points Saved 3

1 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Bu Yunchaokete — Prediction