ATP tennis predict — Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Billy Harris

Challenger Hard St. Tropez challenger · 1. round 14:30

Predicted probability

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Norway

74.39%

Billy Harris

Great Britain

25.61%

Average Odds

1.52 / 2.41

Market probability

61.32% / 38.68%

Why This Prediction?

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1757 vs 1617), a higher Elo rating (1766 vs 1686) and a stronger return game (41.5% vs 36.1% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1766.1 Elo 1686.2

1756.6 Elo (surface) 1617.2

54 Wins (Challenger) 120

33 Wins (surface) 86

6 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.975 Dominance ratio 0.993

146 Rank 231

20.1 Age 31.7

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–6L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Billy Harris

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-06-04.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Billy Harris

1st Serve In %

57.9%

60.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.6%

64.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.5%

42.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.9%

27.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.0%

48.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.31

0.38

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.5%

58.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.2%

76.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

58.6%

51.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.4%

24.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.6%

52.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.39

0.70

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Billy Harris

Break Points Saved %

67.1%

53.9%

Break Points Converted %

36.8%

36.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

54.9%

64.3%

Break Points Converted %

47.5%

34.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer 0 – 0 Billy Harris

Hard St. Tropez challenger · 2026-09-22

1. round

Billy Harris #231

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer #146

3-6 6-3 7-5

7 Aces 11

- Double Faults -

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

- First Serve Won -

- Second Serve Won -

4 Break Points Saved 9

8 Break Points Faced 12

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.4 Average Odds 1.5

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Billy Harris — Prediction