ATP tennis predict — Nick Hardt vs Marco Cecchinato

Challenger Clay Porto 2 challenger · 1. round 11:30

Predicted probability

Nick Hardt

Dominican Rep.

35.43%

Marco Cecchinato

Italy

64.57%

Average Odds

3.23 / 1.31

Market probability

28.85% / 71.15%

Why This Prediction?

Marco Cecchinato is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1717 vs 1580), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1733 vs 1599) and more wins on clay courts (132 vs 5).

Player Comparison

1580.2 Elo 1717.4

1598.6 Elo (surface) 1732.9

86 Wins (Challenger) 310

64 Wins (surface) 307

9 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 1

0.990 Dominance ratio 0.881

284 Rank 166

26.0 Age 33.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Nick Hardt

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

11 matches with market odds since 2026-06-12.

Marco Cecchinato

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 14W–3L · 82.4%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

31 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Nick Hardt Marco Cecchinato

1st Serve In %

66.5%

63.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

59.2%

68.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.2%

56.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.0%

30.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.3%

51.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.09

0.24

Double Faults per Service Game

0.37

0.18

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.3%

61.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.0%

65.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.0%

53.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.4%

33.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.2%

53.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.19

Double Faults per Service Game

0.46

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Nick Hardt Marco Cecchinato

Break Points Saved %

42.6%

65.4%

Break Points Converted %

35.2%

37.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.5%

65.3%

Break Points Converted %

42.4%

48.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Nick Hardt 0 – 1 Marco Cecchinato

Clay Porto 2 challenger · 2026-09-01

1. round

Marco Cecchinato #166

Nick Hardt #284

4-6 6-0 6-3

0 Aces 1

7 Double Faults 5

90 Service Points 75

54 First Serve In 47

30 First Serve Won 37

16 Second Serve Won 13

10 Break Points Saved 4

16 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.2

Clay Todi challenger · 2026-08-10

1. round

Marco Cecchinato #170

Nick Hardt #273

6-3 7-5

- Aces -

- Double Faults -

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

- First Serve Won -

- Second Serve Won -

- Break Points Saved -

- Break Points Faced -

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 2.8

Nick Hardt vs Marco Cecchinato — Prediction