ATP tennis predict — Nick Hardt vs Felipe Meligeni Alves

Challenger Clay Antofagasta challenger · R16 21:30

Predicted probability

Nick Hardt

Dominican Rep.

42.42%

Felipe Meligeni Alves

Brazil

57.58%

Average Odds

2.48 / 1.48

Market probability

37.37% / 62.63%

Why This Prediction?

Felipe Meligeni Alves is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1699 vs 1623), a higher Elo rating (1664 vs 1616) and more wins on clay courts (146 vs 65).

Player Comparison

1616.3 Elo 1663.9

1623.4 Elo (surface) 1699.5

87 Wins (Challenger) 154

65 Wins (surface) 146

9 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.041 Dominance ratio 0.865

281 Rank 453

26.0 Age 28.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Nick Hardt

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

12 matches with market odds since 2026-06-12.

Felipe Meligeni Alves

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Nick Hardt Felipe Meligeni Alves

1st Serve In %

66.5%

67.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

59.2%

65.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.2%

40.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.0%

31.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.3%

48.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.09

0.38

Double Faults per Service Game

0.37

0.24

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.1%

72.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.8%

45.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.4%

29.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.7%

53.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.22

0.62

Double Faults per Service Game

0.43

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Nick Hardt Felipe Meligeni Alves

Break Points Saved %

42.6%

65.7%

Break Points Converted %

35.2%

30.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

50.9%

60.7%

Break Points Converted %

42.9%

37.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Nick Hardt and Felipe Meligeni Alves have never played each other.

Nick Hardt vs Felipe Meligeni Alves — Prediction