ATP tennis predict — Naoki Tajima vs Tuncay Duran

Challenger Hard Samsun challenger · qualification - 1. round

Predicted probability

Naoki Tajima

Japan

16.74%

Tuncay Duran

Turkey

83.26%

Average Odds

5.79 / 1.11

Market probability

16.09% / 83.91%

Why This Prediction?

Tuncay Duran is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1537 vs 1294), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1552 vs 1372) and fewer double faults per game (0.13 vs 0.27).

Player Comparison

1294.1 Elo 1536.9

1372.5 Elo (surface) 1552.1

6 Wins (Challenger) 5

6 Wins (surface) 5

3 Last 15 form 5

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.644 Dominance ratio 1.034

1391 Rank 646

25.8 Age 22.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Naoki Tajima

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

1 matches with market odds since 2026-07-26.

Tuncay Duran

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

12 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Naoki Tajima Tuncay Duran

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

1st Serve In %

53.4%

58.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.0%

69.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

39.9%

48.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.7%

49.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.51

0.57

Double Faults per Service Game

0.52

0.41

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Naoki Tajima Tuncay Duran

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

Break Points Saved %

46.0%

59.7%

Break Points Converted %

51.2%

39.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Naoki Tajima 0 – 0 Tuncay Duran

Hard Samsun challenger · 2026-07-26

qualification - 1. round

Tuncay Duran #1194

Naoki Tajima #-

6-4 6-2

2 Aces 7

5 Double Faults 1

55 Service Points 48

30 First Serve In 24

18 First Serve Won 22

11 Second Serve Won 16

2 Break Points Saved 3

5 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.1 Average Odds 5.8

Naoki Tajima vs Tuncay Duran — Prediction