ATP tennis predict — Mykyta Mashtakov vs Valentin Basel

Challenger Clay Plovdiv 3 challenger · qualification - 1. round 16:00

Predicted probability

Mykyta Mashtakov

Ukraine

33.89%

Valentin Basel

Argentina

66.11%

Average Odds

1.13 / 5.43

Market probability

82.77% / 17.23%

Why This Prediction?

Valentin Basel is the favorite because he has a stronger return game (39.2% vs 35.5% of return points won), more wins on clay courts (5 vs 3) and more career match wins (5 vs 3).

Player Comparison

1408.2 Elo 1329.2

1418.2 Elo (surface) 1347.6

3 Wins (Challenger) 5

3 Wins (surface) 5

3 Last 15 form 4

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.781 Dominance ratio 0.879

646 Rank 1106

27.4 Age 22.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mykyta Mashtakov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

12 matches with market odds since 2026-08-09.

Valentin Basel

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

6 matches with market odds since 2026-06-21.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mykyta Mashtakov Valentin Basel

1st Serve In %

68.3%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

51.2%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

25.0%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

14.3%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

36.4%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.00

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.10

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.8%

66.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.6%

62.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.4%

46.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

37.4%

32.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.3%

52.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.12

0.15

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mykyta Mashtakov Valentin Basel

Break Points Saved %

46.2%

—

Break Points Converted %

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.5%

50.6%

Break Points Converted %

47.1%

36.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mykyta Mashtakov 0 – 0 Valentin Basel

Clay Plovdiv 3 challenger · 2026-08-30

qualification - 1. round

Mykyta Mashtakov #576

Valentin Basel #1115

7-6 6-7 6-1

2 Aces 3

4 Double Faults 4

117 Service Points 117

79 First Serve In 75

61 First Serve Won 50

18 Second Serve Won 24

5 Break Points Saved 7

6 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.1 Average Odds 5.4

Mykyta Mashtakov vs Valentin Basel — Prediction