ATP tennis predict — Mykyta Mashtakov vs Maxim Mrva

Challenger Clay Plovdiv 4 challenger · 1. round 11:30

Predicted probability

Mykyta Mashtakov

Ukraine

21.16%

Maxim Mrva

Czech Republic

78.84%

Average Odds

3.19 / 1.32

Market probability

29.27% / 70.73%

Why This Prediction?

Maxim Mrva is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1738 vs 1565), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1729 vs 1567) and a stronger return game (44.5% vs 39.1% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1565.2 Elo 1737.7

1566.6 Elo (surface) 1729.4

9 Wins (Challenger) 53

9 Wins (surface) 38

9 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.947 Dominance ratio 1.070

527 Rank 213

27.5 Age 19.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mykyta Mashtakov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

12 matches with market odds since 2026-08-09.

Maxim Mrva

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 12W–3L · 80.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mykyta Mashtakov Maxim Mrva

1st Serve In %

68.3%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

51.2%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

25.0%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

14.3%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

36.4%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.00

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.10

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.8%

56.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.6%

61.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.4%

48.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

37.4%

40.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.3%

48.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.12

0.20

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mykyta Mashtakov Maxim Mrva

Break Points Saved %

46.2%

—

Break Points Converted %

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.5%

47.9%

Break Points Converted %

47.1%

48.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mykyta Mashtakov 0 – 0 Maxim Mrva

Clay Plovdiv 4 challenger · 2026-09-22

1. round

Maxim Mrva #213

Mykyta Mashtakov #527

6-4 4-6 6-2

2 Aces 0

2 Double Faults 4

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

39 First Serve Won 35

15 Second Serve Won 21

6 Break Points Saved 3

13 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.2

Mykyta Mashtakov vs Maxim Mrva — Prediction