ATP tennis predict — Mykyta Mashtakov vs Mario Gonzalez Fernandez

Challenger Clay Szczecin challenger · qualification - 1. round 12:00

Predicted probability

Mykyta Mashtakov

Ukraine

55.39%

Mario Gonzalez Fernandez

Spain

44.61%

Average Odds

1.48 / 2.50

Market probability

62.81% / 37.19%

Why This Prediction?

Mykyta Mashtakov is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1525 vs 1359), a higher Elo rating (1525 vs 1449) and more wins on clay courts (6 vs 2).

Player Comparison

1524.5 Elo 1448.8

1525.1 Elo (surface) 1359.2

6 Wins (Challenger) 11

6 Wins (surface) 2

6 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.947 Dominance ratio 1.083

576 Rank 564

27.5 Age 24.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mykyta Mashtakov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

12 matches with market odds since 2026-08-09.

Mario Gonzalez Fernandez

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mykyta Mashtakov Mario Gonzalez Fernandez

1st Serve In %

68.3%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

51.2%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

25.0%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

14.3%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

36.4%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.00

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.10

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.8%

69.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.6%

64.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.4%

48.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

37.4%

39.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.3%

58.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.12

0.13

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mykyta Mashtakov Mario Gonzalez Fernandez

Break Points Saved %

46.2%

—

Break Points Converted %

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.5%

56.3%

Break Points Converted %

47.1%

46.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mykyta Mashtakov 0 – 0 Mario Gonzalez Fernandez

Clay Szczecin challenger · 2026-09-13

qualification - 1. round

Mykyta Mashtakov #576

Mario Gonzalez Fernandez #564

7-5 6-1

4 Aces 0

2 Double Faults 0

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

26 First Serve Won 25

17 Second Serve Won 4

6 Break Points Saved 7

8 Break Points Faced 12

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.5 Average Odds 2.5

Mykyta Mashtakov vs Mario Gonzalez Fernandez — Prediction