ATP tennis predict — Murphy Cassone vs Patrick Zahraj

Challenger Hard St. Tropez challenger · qualification - round of 16 11:30

Predicted probability

Murphy Cassone

USA

69.94%

Patrick Zahraj

Germany

30.06%

Average Odds

1.24 / 3.69

Market probability

74.85% / 25.15%

Why This Prediction?

Murphy Cassone is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1664 vs 1466), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1653 vs 1518) and a stronger serve (64.2% vs 58.9% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1663.5 Elo 1466.2

1652.9 Elo (surface) 1517.7

82 Wins (Challenger) 50

74 Wins (surface) 43

7 Last 15 form 5

1 Head-to-head wins 0

0.906 Dominance ratio 0.968

318 Rank 514

24.1 Age 27.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Murphy Cassone

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Patrick Zahraj

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–5L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

10 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Murphy Cassone Patrick Zahraj

1st Serve In %

67.9%

56.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.2%

70.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.0%

43.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.7%

24.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.2%

44.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.59

0.36

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.41

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

64.6%

56.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.4%

68.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.2%

48.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.2%

32.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.7%

49.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.55

0.50

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Murphy Cassone Patrick Zahraj

Break Points Saved %

51.9%

64.2%

Break Points Converted %

48.9%

36.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

58.7%

66.2%

Break Points Converted %

57.9%

39.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Murphy Cassone 1 – 0 Patrick Zahraj

Hard St. Tropez challenger · 2026-09-21

qualification - round of 16

Murphy Cassone #318

Patrick Zahraj #514

6-2 7-5

8 Aces 8

4 Double Faults 2

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

29 First Serve Won 29

13 Second Serve Won 6

2 Break Points Saved 4

2 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.2 Average Odds 3.7

Grass Birmingham CH · 2025-06-02

Q2

Murphy Cassone #207

Patrick Zahraj #278

6-4 6-3

4 Aces 7

0 Double Faults 5

54 Service Points 52

36 First Serve In 29

27 First Serve Won 22

11 Second Serve Won 9

3 Break Points Saved 1

4 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Murphy Cassone vs Patrick Zahraj — Prediction