ATP tennis predict — Murphy Cassone vs Arthur Gea

Challenger Hard Granby challenger · SF

Predicted probability

Murphy Cassone

USA

48.24%

Arthur Gea

France

51.76%

Average Odds

2.47 / 1.50

Market probability

37.78% / 62.22%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1658.0 Elo 1663.8

1644.2 Elo (surface) 1659.9

80 Wins (Challenger) 66

72 Wins (surface) 20

9 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.826 Dominance ratio 0.889

287 Rank 137

23.9 Age 21.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Murphy Cassone

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Arthur Gea

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Murphy Cassone Arthur Gea

1st Serve In %

67.9%

54.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.2%

68.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.0%

50.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.7%

29.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.2%

50.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.59

0.40

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

64.6%

59.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.4%

69.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.2%

44.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.2%

27.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.7%

48.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.55

0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Murphy Cassone Arthur Gea

Break Points Saved %

51.9%

62.4%

Break Points Converted %

48.9%

41.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

58.7%

45.3%

Break Points Converted %

57.9%

36.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Murphy Cassone 0 – 0 Arthur Gea

Hard Granby challenger · 2026-07-18

SF

Arthur Gea #137

Murphy Cassone #287

6-3 6-3

1 Aces 2

1 Double Faults 2

42 Service Points 54

25 First Serve In 38

16 First Serve Won 26

8 Second Serve Won 11

1 Break Points Saved 2

5 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.5 Average Odds 2.5

Murphy Cassone vs Arthur Gea — Prediction